330 business failures in 2023 and 1,000 jobs lost in 2024

Thus, in the building sector (2024 review), a sharp recession is recorded with overall activity at -6.6%. After an erosion of activity in 2023 (-0.9%), the building sector entered a recession driven by the collapse of new builds. In terms of employment (-2.2%), the start of the decline, observed in 2023, worsened in 2024 with the loss of 30,000 jobs in France.

In new housing (-21.9%), the drop in housing starts (-14.2% after -24.9% in 2023) plunges production to a historic low of 253,000 homes, which is the 1954 level! NEW HOUSING ON THE DECLINE Activity in new housing also plunged in 2024 by 22% in constant prices.

And in new non-residential (-7.4%), the drop (excluding price effect) affects all segments except stable public buildings. This is a new historic low for constructed floor area since 1986 (20.1 million m²).

L’activité du logement neuf a plongé également en 2024 de 22% à prix constants. Et dans le nonrésidentiel neuf (-7,4%), le décrochage (hors effet prix) concerne tous les segments exceptés les bâtiments publics stables. C'est un nouveau plus bas historique des surfaces construites depuis 1986 (20,1 millions de m2). Dans l'entretien amélioration (+1,2%), le rythme est deux fois moindre qu’en 2023 à cause de la réforme ratée de MaPrimRenov sur les 5 premiers mois de 2024 et du recul des transactions dans l’ancien. En revanche, la rénovation du non-résidentiel s’est établi à +2%. Dans le Bâtiment (prévisions 2025), on prévoit encore une poursuite de la chute. L’année 2025 s’annonce très mauvaise avec une activité pénalisée par le neuf (-5,6%). L’écart avec l’activité constaté en 2024 n’est pas tenable. Environ 100 000 emplois sont menacés (-7,4%).

In maintenance and improvement (+1.2%), the pace is half as fast as in 2023 due to the failed reform of MaPrimRenov in the first 5 months of 2024 and the decline in transactions for existing homes. On the other hand, non-residential renovation stood at +2%.

In the building sector (2025 forecasts), a continued fall is still expected. The year 2025 promises to be very bad, with activity penalized by new builds (-5.6%).

The gap with the activity observed in 2024 is not sustainable. Around 100,000 jobs are threatened (-7.4%).

DROP IN SALES In terms of new housing, a floor for housing starts would be reached with 239,000 units (-14.2%).

Despite a macro-financial environment that has become more favorable, two negative factors will play a full role. On the one hand, the upstream sector is still poorly oriented with the drop in sales by builders (-15%) and developers (-30%) and the abandonment of the PLF2025 following the fall of the Barnier government. In new non-residential (-15.0%), the market suffers from general uncertainty and insufficient credit incentives.

No segment would be spared, including administrative premises, which would suffer from the wait-and-see attitude of local authorities despite the favorable electoral cycle. A new historic low for constructed floor area would be reached with 18.8 million m².

In the maintenance and improvement sector (+0.9%), there is a further slowdown due to the softening of non-residential (+0.6%) while housing accelerates slightly (+1.0%).

PUBLIC WORKS In Public Works (2025 forecasts), the momentum is broken despite the favorable municipal cycle. Based on the PLF2025, the activity prospects were darkened by the planned budget cuts which impacted local investment and contradicted the objectives of ecological transition and support for local territories.

What scenario for the future new PLF2025? The prospects by contracting authorities are bleak. Thus, for the State, the Agence de Financement des Infrastructures de Transport is the first victim of budget cuts with a budget in 2025 of ’3.7 billion compared to ’4.6 billion in 2024.

Local authorities are the scapegoats of the budget slippage. Local finances are under pressure from the finance bill with the siphon of ’3 billion from their revenues, the reduction in the VAT recovery rate (i.e., -’800 million), the freezing of the VAT fraction for local authorities (-’1.2 billion) and the 60% cut in the Fonds Vert (’2.5 billion in 2024 and ’1 billion in 2025) However, large operators are still providing support for transport and energy.

Thus, there is a growth of +3.5% in activity related to major projects (Rail, Canal Seine-Nord).

On the private players' side, we are heading towards a low point for new real estate. A 3% decrease is anticipated in this sector.

Finally, sluggish growth is expected in 2025 (+1.1%), and inflation at +1.8% in 2025.